Time For New Spring

Once upon a time there was a great jungle , it had various varieties of trees , bushes , animals , birds and resources to sustain all of it. Some trees were really very old and strong . These big trees were from various variety and size . They were around since ages and now many of the birds and animals have nests over them. As these trees grew they were expanded into mammoth structures with capturing maximum space and resources in their area. They absorbed whatever came near by their roots. Water , soil and light was equally absorbed by them . Because of such consumption it was impossible for any small sapling to grow under their shadows since they
could not get enough resources .

With more urbanisation around the normal life of jungle was also interfered in many ways ,The grand river in the jungle was used to waste disposal as well , some canals were created to take the contaminated and toxic waste to the river and central jungle for disposal.The greed of big
and arrogant trees was such that they started sucking much of such toxic waste equally. The birds who were supported by the trees or any one else could not notice any thing from outside but because of high intake of such wastes roots and foundation of the trees were contaminated , insects and hermits have started eating them up. It was a painless and slow process
which went unnoticed to every one.
As winters started , there came a strong storm . Unaware of the weakness which these trees had accumulated in their roots , they could not stand this storm and started falling one by one. It was a chaos in the jungle since these were old epitomes and supported the environment around them. Many animals and birds became home less , while falling these trees also destroyed smaller plants and bushes around them . Some who fall on another of their kind resulting fall of both trees. There was hardly any thing could be done about it. Lots of unfortunate damage was definitely caused and we all will surely miss the sweet fruits , the grand shelter , esteemed identity and magnanimity which was associated with these trees.
With in some time fallen trees will be covered in soil and provide good fertile base to other smaller plants to grow on them . The positive side is with their fall they left a large open area where new saplings would be able to grow freely now , there will be new breed of tree , may be stronger and more diverse. With this kind of evolution probably these new ones would avoid toxic waste and depend upon clean natural resources for growth .

( PS : With GM filling for chapter 11 today , It was heartbreaking to see such large organization getting annihilated in given crisis . Hopefully there will be new ones to take charge )

An opportunity lost:

Recent Global turmoil seen more then half of top financial institutions falling down , they either filed for bankrupcy or sold themselves at a price which was half or third of thier valuations few months back. These financial organizations were center for best talent across the world , global banks and HNIs used to swear on thier name and expertise . Totally unmatchable human intellect and growth potential. It was a bargain time on streets when some of the best money makers were on the sale . Several banks like BOFA , CITI utilise this opportunity to the fullest by acquiring these organizations completly or in partial units.For Asia which is still thanking its stars for not getting into this mess , it was an opportunity lost. There are very few institutions in the history of Asia which have raised to the level of these western Investment banks . This time they had an opportunity to simply grab what has already been created at a price which is almost unbelievable but none of Asian oganizations were prepared for such opportunity. The only bank from Asia to venture into it is Japanese Namura which acquired Lehman brothers assets in middle east.Indian banks which were still in much better condition but financially as their exposure to subprime crisis was almost non existent , Couldn't leverage on these opportunities. This was a golden chance which comes almost in a dacade , one timely decision could have set any moderate financial organization to the top of the world. Quality assets and worldclass talent could have been acquired at very low cost and also retained for long time at very competitive operating expenses.
Anyways now most of it has already gone to kitty of US banks ( Yet again ) but still there are chances to learn a lot from this and grab some of the best talent in respective fields.

Shattered dream fo decoupled economy

http://www.coolavenues.com/know/gm/saurabh-economy-1.php

The bulls were all riding to the north till February, the celebration of Diwali, Christmas and New Year was still in the air, and above all, there were talks of India and China economies getting decoupled from US economy, India becoming more self-sustainable
and self-dependent. Then came the acid test of the de-coupling, US Sub-prime crisis started taking tolls on all the foundation pillars of the financial services across the globe. At initial stages, it looked as if only IT companies, which have major chunk of revenue coming from these big financial service providers and banks, will be getting affected, but then started one of the deepest bear hug of Sensitivity Index.
The crisis in US had down-sized the Indian growth story from a futuristic fairy tale of crown prince to a below average story of struggling man. Now the idea of decoupling sounds laughable, We have seen the result, how independent our functionings are with respect to Western Economy, US Economy is still the engine of world growth express. We are far away from being a decoupled economy, and how can we be one.
Complete Sensex was overloaded from FII and FDIs. All major financial institutions have picked-up almost every stock available listed in the sensex. What happened when they felt trouble in thier homeland? Obviously there was liquidity crunch, there was apprehension that US recession can send growth of complete world couple of years back . Institutional investors started selling their holdings one after another, and the result was the downward journey of Sensex. The same message was received clearly by Indian investors and they followed the way shown by wise men of the finance world.
What Next?
Asia-Centric Approach
Looking at the current trends, there is a shift expected from West to East, Indian investment banks are still doing better. Recently, Indian arms of I-Banks offered highest salary in premium business schools. In India, these banks are still showing profit and distributing bonuses, which are higher then anywhere else in the world. Same is also applicable for China.
Shift to Commodity
Commodity, metel and oil are still crossing new limits every day. Recently, oil crossed 112 Dollar per barrel whereas gold is its all time high of near 13,000. There is a direct correlation between prices of gold and oil and, hence, they are increasing together. For investors also, it makes more sense now to invest in commodity market as it will not only provide less volatility but also save value of their money from inflation.
Slowdown in Growth
With US recession, the growth in India and China will not be that fast, still Asian countries are highly export-oriented and US is the largest customer for them.
Further Rise of Europe
All this can be good opportunity for Europe to rise. Euro is continuously getting stronger in comparison to other currencies, and there are not many bad news coming from Europe.
Leadership Change
In a very short span of time, we are seeing leadership change for the biggest power of the world, Vladimir Putin stepped down from Russian president-ship, Soon there will be new president in USA and new premier in Pakistan. UK and Germany have also seen a change in leadership and for India also this is the last year of the UPA government before election. Although any of these changes will not be able to affect much in terms of economic factors, but they may change the sentiments of people.
Accumulation & Bottom Fishing
Problem for one and opportunity for other. It is shopping time for all those who were sitting on large reserves and waiting for correct valuations to arrive. Recently, large number of stocks have been accumulated by various investment firms, and the trend will go on gradually.